What Really Shapes Your Voting Decision?
Is your vote purely rational, or are hidden factors shaping your voting decisions?
Elections are the foundation of democracy. This year, over 2 billion people from 50+ countries will cast their ballot to choose their government, aptly receiving the title “Year of Voting.” The results of the elections will not only determine who the government will comprise but will also shape the nation’s economic and geopolitical policies.
Recognising the importance of each vote in determining the country’s future, political parties spare no expense in persuading voters. They employ various promotional techniques such as advertisements and rallies to travel across the country to convey their manifesto and ideology.
While these are overt or visible persuasion methods, certain subtle psychological variables have the potential to shape your decisions. The present article aims to not only highlight what these factors are but also explore how they influence your ballot decisions.
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1. Personality Traits
Personality traits have been extensively studied in the context of leaders, with ample evidence suggesting that their visible traits and characteristics influence how we perceive them. While that is another topic, it is important to consider how a voter's personality can significantly influence voting behaviour.
Adam Gerber and his colleagues, in their 2011 study, found that the Big Five Personality Traits (see image below) were associated with an individual’s ballot decisions. For those unfamiliar, these traits are openness, conscientiousness, extraversion, and agreeableness, which provide a comprehensive framework for understanding individual personality differences.
The study’s findings suggest that those scoring higher on conscientiousness and neuroticism were more likely to support conservative candidates/ parties. On the other hand, those scoring higher in openness and agreeableness were more likely to support liberal parties and candidates. However, the findings on extraversion are mixed, i.e., there is no consensus regarding its association with voting decisions.
But why do certain traits shape voting decisions?
According to experts, openness fosters a receptivity to change and a willingness to embrace progressive policies. Furthermore, individuals who exhibit openness tend to display greater empathy towards policies supporting marginalised groups, which resonate with liberal values.
Conversely, conscientious individuals often staunchly adhere to maintaining the status quo, a principle commonly associated with conservative ideologies. Additionally, they prioritise values such as hard work and self-discipline which are encouraged within conservative ideologies. By examining personality, we can explore how certain traits impact voting decisions and gain a unique insight into how people vote.
2. Ethnicity and Race
Demographic factors such as race and ethnicity significantly influence our ideologies, which we must consider.
There are recorded instances where individuals prefer to vote for candidates with a similar racial background compared to someone who belongs to a different race or ethnicity. This was evidenced in the voting patterns of Chinese Canadian voters, who tended to vote along ethnic lines and not for caucasian candidates who contested. This inclination tends to be high among those individuals who have a strong connection to their racial identity or if they feel that the members of their group have been discriminated against.
Moreover, race and ethnicity can also shape the voting behaviours of minority groups. Studies suggest that members of minority ethnic or racial communities are inclined to support a candidate/party that actively addresses their concerns regarding immigration, discrimination, and prejudice. Recognising race and ethnicity's profound impact on political ideologies is crucial as they significantly influence voting behaviours and societal dynamics.
3. Education
A crucial yet overlooked aspect when it comes to voting behaviour is education. Not only does education shape our choices at the ballot box, but it is also a determinant of an individual's motivation to participate in elections. Research has consistently demonstrated that higher levels of education are associated with higher voter turnout rates.
The influence of education, however, extends beyond motivation and can sway the way we cast our vote.
In 2016, the Pew Research Center released a report examining the voting patterns in the US over the last 20 years. They found that highly educated individuals, particularly those who went to graduate school, were more likely to take a liberal stand than an individual who was less educated.
Similar behaviours were also found in the UK’s 2017 general election, where those who extended support for the country’s Labour Party were more likely to be college graduates. In fact, in the UK, educational attainment was identified as a key indicator of how they voted for the Brexit referendum, with those with a graduate degree voting to stay in the European Union.
This association between education and voting behaviour encourages us to investigate the underlying causes. Higher education exposes individuals to diverse perspectives and nurtures critical thinking. As a result, an educated voter will approach politics with an open mind, consider multiple viewpoints, and make an informed decision at the ballot box.
It is however important to recognise that while higher education might increase political awareness, there isn’t much research regarding how it leads to certain vote choices. To understand the depth of the relationship between these two factors further research is required.
4. Media
Traditional Media
Traditional media sources such as television and print are important outlets through which citizens stay up to date about politics, getting familiar with the views and policies of those running for office. In addition to keeping its viewers informed, this medium extends further and shapes their voting decisions. But how exactly?
Let us take a look at Shreyas Sardesai’s recent study, which examined this power within the context of Indian elections between the years 1996 and 2019. His research findings showed that higher media consumption increased the likelihood of the individual supporting the BJP (Bharatiya Janata Party). Recent studies support the findings of Sardesai’s research by identifying certain media sources that influence voting behaviour more than others. For instance, in the United States, the viewership of Fox News, a conservative media network, is shown to have convinced voters to support the Republican Party in the elections.
Social Media
In addition to traditional media, the internet too is a major news source, particularly among a younger demographic. The convenience, accessibility, constant updates and diverse voices are some factors that make it a preferred news source for many.
However, social media companies like Facebook in the past have engaged in what is called microtargeting. This entails the collection of your data to categorise you, subsequently tailoring content according to your preferences often without your explicit knowledge. Candidates however benefit from this categorisation as it allows them to target individuals who fit a certain demographic and personalise their campaigns for them.
A study conducted by the University of Warwick found that in the 2016 U.S. Election, Donald Trump’s campaign used microtargeting to convince undecided voters to vote for him and encourage republican voters to show up on election day. Instances like this show us that social media companies are turning out to be powerful political instruments.
The downside of microtargeting is experienced by voters as they find themselves in echo chambers or bubbles. This is because the algorithm will begin to only show them content they have recently looked up or agree with, thereby strongly reinforcing their beliefs. These individuals however have a narrow understanding regarding any issue due to the lack of exposure to multiple outlooks, consequently resulting in hostility towards those who share opposing beliefs.
In addition to the manipulation of voter's beliefs, microtargeting also raises serious concerns regarding privacy and the spreading of disinformation. For example, microtargeting was deliberately used to suppress black voter turnout in the 2016 U.S. elections by discouraging them from voting through misleading social media campaigns. The widespread use of microtargeting techniques highlights the need for robust frameworks that protect individual's privacy and reduce the risk of disinformation in the digital age.
Voting is an important part of our democratic right. As we explored through this article, factors such as personality, ethnicity, race, education and media coverage provide us valuable insight into the complexities of a voter's decision-making process. As we move forward, it is important to create an environment that fosters informed decision-making, where citizens proactively engage in meaningful dialogue and critical thinking, eventually contributing to our democratic institutions.
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